Ed Dowd: We're Already in a Recession, Oil Going to $30 and The Deflation Coming

TARIFF - THE MOST BEAUTIFUL WORD IN ENGLISH + NATIONAL DEBT AND CRYPTO ISSUE
https://gab.com/dolbi2020/posts/113956247295551449
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Takeaways:
1 Today, the AI stock market has devolved into a desperate circle jerk: a horde of balding bro-scientists furiously fapping to fairy-tale forecasts, high-fiving over hallucinated holograms while their "revolutionary" portfolios hemorrhage cash faster than a hooker's regrets.
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2 We're knee-deep in a technical recession right now—like the economy's on a bad acid trip, shrinking faster than your dignity after a Tinder date. Hoard cash like a doomsday prepper with a Bitcoin fetish, so you can swoop in and snatch those value stocks cheaper than a hooker's virtue on dollar-beer night.
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3 China's in deep shit—overcapacity's got their factories churning out bargains like a drunk uncle at a yard sale. To keep those slant-eyed hordes from rioting in the rice paddies, Beijing's gonna flood the world with deflation for a decade. Your iPhone's next upgrade? It'll cost less than a Happy Meal, and twice as depressing.
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4 By the way, tariffs are deflationary—like a financial whoopee cushion popping inflation's smug ass. But Bitcoin-hoarding morons? They're too busy humping their HODL memes to notice the air leaking out.
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5 T-bills and the almighty dollar are about to smoke Bitcoin like a bad crypto burrito—leaving it gassy, worthless, and begging for a bailout from Elon.
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6 Oil's tanking harder than a drunk pirate at a yoga retreat—sub-$30 a barrel incoming, so stock up on gas, guzzle it like cheap rum, and watch the Saudis weep into their falafel.
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7 Warren Buffett’s Berkshire is currently hoarding $381.7 billion in cash and T-bills. Grandpa’s basically the final boss of “fuck you” money right now.
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Ed Dowd, a former BlackRock portfolio manager and founder of Phinance Technologies, has repeatedly argued that tariffs—particularly those proposed or implemented under the Trump administration—are not the inflationary force many economists and critics assume them to be. Instead, he views them as fundamentally deflationary (or at minimum, disinflationary), based on their broader macroeconomic ripple effects. His reasoning, drawn from his analyses and public statements in 2025, centers on how tariffs act as a drag on economic activity and money circulation, outweighing any localized price increases. Below, I'll break down his key thinking step by step, supported by his direct quotes and reports.
https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1990787946115371449
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If you're not familiar with the language of finance, just ask — don't be shy!
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SOURCE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHM-BH-SguE
https://x.com/DowdEdward
https://www.eddowd.com/
https://phinancetechnologies.com/
PIX https://gab.com/dolbi2020/posts/115577303759933661