Daily Update Podcast for Monday November 3, 2025

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Market Summary Newsletter for Friday, October 31, 2025:
S&P 500: +0.26% (closed almost at the daily pivot 6841).
The S&P 500 opened strong, above R1 (6862), but hit the intraday high at open. Late-day selling erased gains; closed near unchanged. Volume: Above average but tapering
The S&P Futures were strong faded as the Open approached.
Key takeaway: Strong earnings (Amazon +9.5%), yet no follow-through. Internal weakness is building.
Big Picture: Still Positive, But Choppy & Trendless
Timeframe
The ADX is showing the S&P 500 as Non-trending (below 20) in the Short and Intermediate Term, but remains Above 20/50-period moving averages. The Long term is in an uptrend, but remains more than 10% above the 200-SMA.
Positive:
Moving Averages: Above 10, 20, 30, 50, 200 which is a Bullish alignment.
Parabolic SAR
Vortex
Growth vs Value (Large Caps) are positive longer-term, but continued weakness shorter-term.
Seasonality: Nov–Dec up 81% / 71% of time since 1950.
Warning Signs:
Hindenburg Omen: Confirmed – 2nd spike (Wed & Thu)
Mass Index: Triggered reversal (downside bias)
McClellan Oscillator: Negative (S&P & NYSE)
Summation Index: Declining (price & volume)
Bullish Percent Index (S&P)
Smart Money Indicators: All negative.
Percent of Stocks above 20/50100-day MA.
Discretionary/Staples ratio is stalling near 50-day MA.
Financials: Severe underperformance vs S&P (since spring).
Sector & Mega-Cap Snapshot
Amazon: +9.51% at the start of the day, but closed at lows.
Tesla: +3.74% but rangebound.
Apple: Down
Microsoft: –1.5%
Meta: Below 200-day
Small/Mid-Caps Outperformed large caps due to Rate-cut hopes and possibly bargain hunting.
Macro Look:
10-Yr Yield up to 4.10%. From under 4% before the rate cut.
Dollar (DXY): Watch 100 level
Gold around $4,000 after pulling back, now rebounding.
VIX: up slightly but still under 20.
Fed Speak (Schmid, Logan): “Hard to cut in Dec without clearer data.” Rate-cut odds cooling.
Monday, November 3 Outlook
Seasonal Bias: Nov 3 historically positive (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ)
First 5 days of Nov look seasonally strong.
But… Government shutdown continues
No major data until (maybe) delayed jobs report
Bull case: Seasonality, earnings, buybacks, soft landing narrative
Bear case: Hindenburg confirmed, smart money negative, financials warning, ST momentum gone.