AUC3I Daily Briefing 07-04-2025 On the WAR in Ukraine

Understanding The War In Europe _ Analyzing the situation on the ground with by way of an introduction, 3 points, and a conclusion #militaryoperations #modernwarfare #blackops

COMBAT BRIEFING NUMBER 1228
"SITUATION OVERVIEW (4 JUL 2025)"
Russian forces report a week-long kinetic campaign combining long-range precision strikes and multi-axis ground pushes in eastern & northern Ukraine. Emphasis was placed on disabling Ukraine’s UAV production, C2 nodes, oil-refining capacity, and frontline logistics. Missile packages included ground-launched systems, "Kinzhal" hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, and long-range strike UAVs. All designated targets are claimed as “destroyed,” though independent confirmation is pending.

"GROUND OPERATIONS"
"North Group" seized Melove (Kharkiv) and advanced in Sumy Oblast, inflicting 1,360+ reported Ukrainian casualties and eliminating 5 MBTs plus 34 artillery pieces.
"West Group" improved positions along the Kupyansk–Svatove axis, citing 1,550 enemy KIA/WIA and destruction of 16 EW stations and 28 ammunition depots.
"South Group" captured Predtechyne (Donetsk), claiming 1,180 Ukrainian losses and disabling "Azov" SOF elements.
"Center Group" advanced in Donetsk & Dnipropetrovsk, liberating Novoukrainka and Razino while inflicting the week’s heaviest losses—up to 3,180 personnel and 17 AFVs.
"East Group" took Chervona Zirka (Donetsk), reporting 1,310 losses on Ukrainian forces and neutralising 7 EW sites.
"Dnepr Group" targeted coastal and riverine sectors, reporting 520 Ukrainian casualties, disruption of 36 EW stations, and 23 supply depots.

"STRATEGIC STRIKE SUMMARY (28 JUN–3 JUL)"
Five massed strike waves eliminated radar stations, UAV launch sites, and refinery assets across Kyiv and central Ukraine. Russian AD claims interception of:

" 7 Storm Shadow cruise missiles
" 6 HIMARS rockets
" 1 Neptune ASCM
" 36 guided bombs
" 1 172 UAVs

"CUMULATIVE TALLY (FEB 2022–PRESENT)"
Russian MoD lists destruction of 663 aircraft, 24,249 tanks/AFVs, 26,910 artillery/mortars, and 66,978 UAVs, illustrating a narrative of sustained Ukrainian materiel attrition.

### OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS & IMPLICATIONS

1. "Integrated Strike-Maneuver Synergy" – Precision deep strikes against defence-industrial and fuel infrastructure aim to constrict Ukraine’s capacity to replace UAVs and sustain mechanised operations, synchronised with gradual ground advances to exploit resultant logistics gaps.
2. "Attritional Momentum" – Claimed weekly Ukrainian personnel losses (\~9 100 across all fronts) reflect Moscow’s ongoing attrition strategy. Even if overstated, the breadth of targeted brigades (mechanised, Jaeger, EW, SOF) suggests deliberate pressure on specialist formations.
3. "EW & Air-Defence Contest" – High intercept figures and destruction of 72 Ukrainian EW assets indicate a contested electromagnetic spectrum. Continued Russian prioritisation of EW nodes seeks to erode Ukrainian counter-battery and UAV control capacity.
4. "Operational Reach" – Liberation of multiple tactical-level settlements demonstrates incremental but geographically dispersed gains, complicating Kyiv’s force allocation. Progress along the Siversk–Donetsk line could threaten Ukrainian inner defensive belts if sustained.
5. "Strategic Outlook" – Expect further long-range strikes on critical infrastructure coupled with probing offensives designed to stretch Ukrainian reserves before anticipated autumn operations. Kyiv’s ability to replenish UAV fleets and protect oil assets will shape operational tempo through Q3 2025.

"ASSESSMENT"
Russian forces maintain the initiative through combined deep-strike and ground maneuver, aiming to degrade Ukrainian industrial resilience and C2 while securing stepwise territorial gains. The coming weeks will test the durability of Ukrainian supply chains and the effectiveness of Western-supplied air defenses against expanding Russian missile-UAV salvos.

#UkraineWar #RussianOffensive #MilitaryAnalysis #OperationalUpdate #Donetsk #KharkivFront #PrecisionStrike