Kyle Bass: China’s Economic Spiral and the Coming Taiwan War

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This is the full version of Jan Jekielek’s interview with Kyle Bass. The interview was originally released on Epoch TV on June 26, 2025.

In this episode, Jan Jekielek is sitting down again with Kyle Bass, founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founding member of the Committee on the Present Danger: China, to get an update on how China’s economy is faring since their last interview five months ago.

“There’s nothing that’s going to bail China out of their economic spiral. They’re having a real estate crisis, a banking crisis, a youth unemployment crisis, and now they need to be worried about their current account,” Bass says.

How have the Trump administration’s policies and recent events affected China and its economy?

And how do the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites impact the Chinese regime’s ambitions in Taiwan? How likely is a kinetic war?

CHAPTER TITLES
0:00:00 - Introduction: Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Challenges
0:00:11 - Interview Setup with Kyle Bass
0:01:01 - Iran-Israel Conflict: Strategic Military Operations
0:04:09 - Ceasefire Dynamics and Middle Eastern Volatility
0:10:59 - Economic Instability and Global Inflation
0:13:44 - China's Economic Crisis and Trade Dynamics
0:18:14 - Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Financial Vulnerabilities
0:22:10 - Leverage Points: US and China's Strategic Pressures
0:26:47 - Taiwan's Strategic Importance and US Defense Commitment
0:34:18 - Potential for Democratic Transformation
0:36:40 - Gray Zone Warfare and South China Sea Tensions
0:41:51 - US Domestic Economic Challenges and Deficit Spending
0:46:12 - Inevitability of Global Conflict
0:47:30 - Deterrence and Best-Case Scenarios
0:48:53 - Potential for Internal Change in Authoritarian Regimes
0:49:23 - Concluding Thoughts