S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday April 29, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, April 28, 2025, and Outlook for Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Monday Market Recap:
Market Action: A relatively calm, flat day with a slightly positive close (+0.06%) for the S&P 500, marking an "up day" despite low conviction. The market opened flat, saw minor buying, hit resistance at R1 (5550), dipped below the daily pivot (5503) to S1 (5478), and recovered post-lunch to close slightly above the unchanged level.
Volume: Below average, reflecting caution as investors await major economic, earnings reports and potential tariff news.
Key Levels: The S&P 500 is at the high end of a recent trading range ("big box"), testing resistance around 5550, a critical level from prior declines. Support held at S1 (5478).
Indicators:
Positive: Short-term momentum is strong (e.g., Stochastics StochRSI, Williams %R, CCI 14, Rate of Change (5)). The Smart Money Indicators (Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, Chaikin Oscillator) and breadth indicators (Zweig NYSE Breadth Thrust, advance-decline line) are bullish. The VIX momentum is declining, supporting stocks.
Negative: The intermediate-term trend remains bearish (ADX red line above green). Growth underperformed value, and key ratios (discretionary vs. staples, tech vs. utilities) are in downtrends. The market is below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages.
Sentiment: Improving but still negative overall (fear area). Contrarian signals from perma-bears suggest potential upside.
Other Markets: Interest rates down (10-year yield at 4.22%), dollar declining, and bond market stabilizing, which may support stocks. The yield curve (10-year to 3-month) is inverted, signaling caution.
Sectors: Mega caps and growth lagged, with staples and value outperforming slightly. Discretionary and tech remain expensive (high P/E ratios), while energy and communication are relatively cheaper.
Economic and External Factors:
No economic reports were released on Monday, contributing to the quiet session.
Investors are cautious due to upcoming major reports (GDP, PCE inflation, employment data) and potential tariff/trade war developments.
Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel) and tariff news remain market focal points.
Tuesday Outlook:
Short-Term: Positive, driven by momentum and seasonality (post-election year tends to be favorable). The market is testing the upper range (5550); a breakout could signal further upside, but resistance is likely.
Intermediate and Long-Term: Negative, with the market in a downtrend and below key moving averages. However, signs of improvement (e.g., bullish percent indexes, PMO studies) suggest potential for a shift if momentum persists.
Key Events:
Economic Data: Housing data (FHFA, S&P Case-Shiller), consumer confidence, advance international trade goods, and retail/wholesale inventories.
Earnings: Major reports this week from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon expected to influence market direction.
Risks: Tariff news, geopolitical developments, and upcoming heavy economic data (GDP, PCE, employment) could drive volatility.
Seasonality: Mixed; post-election years are generally positive, but end-of-month action can be negative. Recent market moves have been driven more by sentiment than seasonality.
Conclusion:
Monday was a low-conviction, range-bound session as the market awaits clarity from earnings, economic data, and tariff developments. The short-term outlook is positive, but intermediate and long-term trends remain bearish, though improving. A breakout above 5550 could signal further gains, while failure to hold support at 5478 may lead to profit-taking or declines. Investors should stay cautious given the event-heavy week ahead.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L-jHK-LjR4nP0h585G3uJwho8eeouRjd/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!