Ukraine's "Big Push" Results in Big Losses as Offensive Nears 2 Months

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 31, 2023

- Ukraine's "big push" over the past week has resulted in minimum gains and massive losses;

- Ukraine's "big push" followed weeks of exercising an alleged "artillery advantage" used to soften Russian defenses;

- Western analysts used the same flawed process to assess Ukraine's artillery capabilities they used to assess the supposed likelihood NATO armor would cut through Russian defenses;

- The US rushing M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine by fall will make no difference on the battlefield, they are too few in number and no more capable than the German Leopard 2 tanks Ukraine has used in a so-far failed offensive;

- Russian defenses are layered specifically to absorb Ukrainian advances and preserve Russian manpower and equipment as they move back to successive lines of defenses;

- Ukraine's attempt to gain territory amid a war of attrition is only accelerating its own defeat;

- A German army report blaming Ukrainian soldiers for the poor outcomes of the offensive is an unfair attempt to shift blame away from NATO;

References:

New York Times - Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Offensive May Be Underway, U.S. Officials Say (July 26):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html
NYT - Ukraine Pushes South, but Faces Obstacles in Counteroffensive (July 27, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/27/world/russia-ukraine-news
Newsweek - Ukraine War Maps Detail Counteroffensive As Kyiv Ups Fighting on Two Fronts (July 29, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-maps-fronts-1816175
NYT - After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy (July 15, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html
Forbes - Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses (July 11, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/11/ukraine-is-winning-the-artillery-war-by-destroying-four-russian-howitzers-for-every-howitzer-it-loses/?sh=668e7ff0fcc0
NYT - Ukraine Pushes South, but Faces Obstacles in Counteroffensive (July 27, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/27/world/russia-ukraine-news
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Politico - U.S. expects to begin delivering Abrams tanks to Ukraine in September (July 27, 2023):
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/27/u-s-expects-to-begin-delivering-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-september-00108635
Defense One - Saudi Losses in Yemen War Exposed by US Tank Deal (2016):
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2016/08/us-tank-deal-exposes-saudi-losses-yemen-war/130623
The Telegraph - Ukraine: The Latest - leaked German report on counter-offensive 'extremely unhelpful' (July 26, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-germany-report-leak/

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