WARNER BROS Still WON'T SELL Or Merge The Company! They Paid Down $6 Billion In Debt Since April!
Rumors and dishonest reporting from The Hollywood Reporter claim Warner Brothers Discovery will be sold in April 2024 as they have more and more problems operating their business. The Hollywood Reporter even ran an article illustrating the CEO struggling to carry past due bills on his back-- all while WBD actually PAID OFF $6 Billion in debit since April 2022!
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YouTuber ‘Thinking Critical’ Explains Why Chaos At DC And Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Bigger Problem Than Finding A Studio Head For The DCEU
https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/10/04/youtuber-thinking-critical-explains-why-chaos-at-dc-and-warner-bros-discovery-is-a-bigger-problem-than-finding-a-studio-head-for-the-dceu/
Warner Bros. Discovery Has Bigger Problems Than Its DC Search
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/warner-bros-discovery-has-bigger-problems-than-its-dc-search-1235221804/
Warner Bros. Discovery: Negative Sentiment Is Overblown
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544448-warner-bros-discovery-negative-sentiment-is-overblown
Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:WBD) stock price currently trades at $13.20, down 83% from its all-time highs in March 2021. Some reasons for this massive decline include:
Reason 1: Dividend-seeking AT&T (T) shareholders selling WBD stock
Reason 2: Netflix (NFLX) losing of 200,000 subscribers in Q1Y22
Reason 3: Strong competition in the streaming space
Reason 4: High level of debt compared to peers
Reason 5: Messy post-merger operations
Reason 6: Lousy macroeconomic outlook
Investment Thesis
In this article, I analyze two main contributing factors to WBD’s depressed price to see if WBD’s price is justified. The two factors are WBD’s declining cable business and its huge debt load.
Declining cable business
It is no surprise that cable subscriptions have been declining fast. Here are some stats:
1.According to Nielsen ratings, TV viewing has been dropping about 10% per quarter.
2.In total, major US cable TV and satellite TV have lost 25 million subscribers since 2012, and are projected to lose another 25 million by 2025.
3.Adults ages 18 through 29 are the largest age group without cable, with 34% of them not having subscriptions to satellite or cable TV services. It seems that the younger generation defaults straight to streaming and do not even consider cable TV as an option for content consumption.
However, not many know that streaming revenues are growing faster than declining cable revenues. Based on the projections by Statista in the figure below, a company that engages in both cable TV and streaming would experience net revenue growth. This is because revenue growth from Streaming would outpace declining revenue from Cable TV. This may mean that companies like WBD, Disney (DIS) and Paramount (PARA) would experience a 36% revenue growth from 2016 to 2026, a CAGR of 3.2%.
Consumer spending on pay TV and streaming video in the United States from 2016 to 2026 ($ billion)
Consumer spending on pay TV and streaming video in the United States from 2016 to 2026 ($ billion)
Statista
Note: The graph refers to revenues earned and not the number of subscribers.
It is important to note that the projections above only take account of revenues from subscription costs and not revenues gained from ads. Since ads will become more personalized in the streaming world, we can assume that ad revenue generated from streaming services will be greater than from cable tv services. For example, Discovery+ makes $11 a US subscriber from a $5 monthly fee and over $6 in advertising for only 3 minutes of ad time vs. $7 from their Cable TV services. This is 57% higher. It was no surprise therefore that WBD CEO stated, “If we lost a million [cable] subs…all we need to do is pick up 650,000 [streaming] subs in order to be making more money.”
Additionally, traditional cable TV companies that are moving into streaming can use the same content and earn from multiple channels.
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