Red Sox vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Boston Puts a Hurting on Hendricks

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At last, we're back from the All-Star break, and we're welcomed in one game with a trip to Chicago when the Boston Red Sox take on the Chicago Cubs. 
Tonight will mark the start of a three-game set for the two teams. I'm keeping an eye on each of these teams post-break.
For the Cubs, it's because they find themselves in a highly competitive divisional race with plenty of chances to move up. Even though they didn't play well to end the first half, I'm still a fan of their overall quality. The Red Sox started to play well toward...

At last, we're back from the All-Star break, and we're welcomed in one game with a trip to Chicago when the Boston Red Sox take on the Chicago Cubs. 
Tonight will mark the start of a three-game set for the two teams. I'm keeping an eye on each of these teams post-break.
For the Cubs, it's because they find themselves in a highly competitive divisional race with plenty of chances to move up. Even though they didn't play well to end the first half, I'm still a fan of their overall quality. The Red Sox started to play well toward the end of the first half. They ended by winning five straight, including two over the Texas Rangers.
Read on for my best bet, analysis of the MLB odds, and full MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Red Sox on Friday, July 14.
Red Sox vs Cubs odds Red Sox vs Cubs predictions
This matchup has some solid contrasting angles, and they are the strongest from a pitching perspective. 
The Chicago Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound. He's had a bit of a late-career renaissance, but many things point to a downturn as we advance. The Red Sox will counter with Brayan Bello. Bello has steadily improved seemingly every time he's played. It's to the point where I can't imagine betting against him. I won't do it today, either. I'm grabbing the Red Sox as my best bet.
As I stated, Bello has been quite impressive lately. Since a start in May against the Tampa Bay Rays, he has yet to allow more than two runs. In addition to that, he's given lengthy starts, going seven innings or more in two of his previous three outings. The challenges he'll give this Cubs lineup are multiple. One is that they should struggle against his primary pitch.
Bello's fastball has been a critical point of his turnaround. His velocity sits in the Top 25% of baseball, and that pitch has delivered a whiff rate of over 20%. This Cubs lineup is built with a manageable amount of great fastball hitters. Of course, you have Cody Bellinger (who is seemingly hitting everything these days), but this lineup is mainly filled with average fastball hitters outside of that. It's not like they are terrible against it, but when you're facing elite velocity, and you're simply average against it, I suspect the end result will be a struggle. 
Boston is strong enough on Bello's form alone. However, things get even more compelling when you factor in what's going on with Hendricks along with his matchup.
Hendricks' regression may have begun. He has pitched admirably throughout the season, the second-best he's ever pitched in his career from a runs perspective, but there was always looming regression. It needed to be more sustainable to have the metrics he had and hope to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA. We saw it in his last start against the New York Yankees when he was hit hard for four runs over five innings. I think the Red Sox can replicate some of what the Yankees did in that matchup.
The struggles for Hendricks are centered around him simply allowing too many bats on the ball. That's an issue against Boston.
The Red Sox do damage when they put the ball in play, owning the fifth-best BABIP rate in the league. When you're saddled with an expected batting average of .255 — one of the worst in the league — like Hendricks is, then you expect those types of teams to do damage against you. 
Grab the Red Sox tonight. It's a bit juicy, but it's worth the squeeze. I projected Boston at -152, so th...